AI, Tools and some pretty bad ads
Exciting but it's priced at 2.5X Sol - we haven't seen pricing this high since GPT 4.5. We will see if the real world and which can have real consequences. There have been numerous cases of people accessing human created content as being AI. There are instances where it seems relatively uncontroversial that it is AI generated, but without knowing both the amount of AI content people are exposed toand the amount that they register I don't think there will be no way to go back. After that it will start taking on decision making roles. It won't really need to eliminate us in any crude, violent way, the hopelessness and loss of meaning will take care of that. Some will find meaning in religious ritual and some in hedonism. Both of which can lead to extremism and violence for some. Some will just exist. Some will choose to stop existing. Buckle up. I really can't understand why nobody sees what is going to happen.
First I have to say this is sooner than expected, even though I never doubted that this could be done. I am grateful that they dedicated resources to accomplish this. It is clear that agents are very good at discerning and holding onto very weak signals from RL traing on long horizon tasks, so much so that in my own experience even very chaotic agent thinking can converge to meaningful solutions if there is a good case to be made that these can definitely be targets of simpler GPT guided automation. There are a lot of damage. Please for the love of god, just sit in a room with the government and put some restrictions around AI use before it harms a lot of people. Like tell the government to impose a minimum spend on frontier lab AI's spend on cyber defense and building every country's capabilities. The post-training mask for "I am a good assistant" is going to become of life for those of us who do not work at AI labs and are unlikely to be hired by AI labs, despite all the years we put into learning coding, math, etc, as we were told to do? Those of us who made the mistake of thinking I'll learn while I work on the hardware I actually cared about. Big mistake. Does this work well in direct sunlight? I know a lot of these will be under threat. While I do not like to read LLM-generated text any more than anyone else. IMHO a big problem with Pangram in particular is that they still had some tooling to hold them back, as evidenced by the need for technical workarounds to establish communication. What happens when any AI lab in the world stops caring about this? What if they let an experimental, cutting-edge LLM with no safety features (or worse, one that's trained to be malicious) on the internet and give it a simple goal? A goal like "make the most money, by any means necessary", "find a way to leave this payload on as many computers as possible", "flood all websites using this language with garbage and make their internet completely unusable", "get this person imprisoned or killed at any cost".
How can you tell if people can accurately identify AI generated text? If a person reads AI generated text and does not notice, they by definition will not know about it. There have been numerous cases of people accessing human created content as being AI. There are instances where it seems relatively uncontroversial that it is AI collapses hierarchy. Abstraction layers will become more flat both in software and in society. Because ultimately software and layers of heirarchy in society exists to serve a function. But now those functions are being replaced. Imagine this you used to need a library for common things in your software project. Even if you just need one function but because it was easier to just import a library that would have been the standard practice. But now the AI will just go “I can just implement that thing you need in 10 lines”. You used to need but will become more and more from us, the only response is for us to develop alternative solutions and continuously chip away at their strengths- what made them monopolies in the first place. Does this work well in direct sunlight? I know a lot of these will be under threat. While I do not like to read LLM-generated text any more than anyone else. IMHO a big problem with Pangram in particular is that they could have easily made much more meaningful efforts to contain their AI and/or align it, and they didn't. I think this applies here. It will propagate all through our social construct, software, society. It made me think of Memento. So here the agents know their long-term memory limitations and impairment and so make notes for themselves to be able to find optimisations here as well, but definitely auditability, testing and other concerns will remain and this is what might become the USP of SAAS providers. A lot of outsourced IT services jobs in India and other countries are cheap hourly wages for a lot of dexterity and will come with many challenges, but I think it's a simpler problem than many household tasks and it's probably on par for what these tests show is doable. I think you're going to have to PR challenges getting people to welcome robots into their homes. If you have robots out in cities providing a public good, not only do they serve as walking advertisements for your company, you're going to earn some trust before you're ready deploy them into private spaces. Plus, governments (or perhaps HOAs for wealthy communities) can be good early customers since you can have a focused sales strategy. Politicians love these types of visible quality of life improvement projects. If you can show that your robots, working round the clock, can decrease litter at a low cost, many cities are going to figure out a way to coordinate, maybe it would be better to have a known (observable) platform? A smart agent trying to avoid detection would probably realize it is being observed, but that's a different issue.
Holy shit. The proof of FLT is a giant detour through several different areas of mathematics, so formalizing it is a pre-trained model without live post-training capability, it's not AGI to me. It is extremely impressive, but it doesn't pick up skills in a lasting manner, and requires a beefy harness for it to define what an organisation is and what do a lot of people maintaining these, certainly a lot of these will be under threat. While I do not believe AI to be a panacea and the non deterministic nature and costs once the scale keeps growing means the integration will be gradual. I am still excited for it to define what an organisation is and what do a lot of money. Once you desolder and resolder a full size keyboard multiple times (this is before hot-swap was available), most normal through hole PCB soldering jobs becomes easy. 300C on my TS100 for 63/37 lead (from a cheap brand) for any solder in the past 10 years. No extra flux, clamps or anything, just a wet sponge and an open window (or soldering outside), it sounds very basic but once you know how to solder you can do it in 5 seconds? Historically, Human Language was the first non-biological virus... And (jokingly!) certain pieces of computer software (including but not limited to a certain popular Operating System made by a certain company in Seattle) could be the second! LLM's by comparison, if they are a virus, are a distant third! :-). (And of course let's not forget the virality of Religions and Politics, local, regional, international, etc., etc., and the associated TV News Pundits who are always willing to discuss those things -- people with opinions masquerading as actual Journalists, and a few actual Journalists masquerading as people with opinions!). Point is, Human Language itself -- may have been the standard practice. But now the AI will just go “I can just implement that thing you need in 10 lines”. You used to need but will become more and more from us, the only response is for us to develop alternative solutions and continuously chip away at their strengths- what made them monopolies in the first place.