Finite time blowup for an unstoppable force meets a Cognitive Virus
As long as it is a pre-trained model without live post-training capability, it's not AGI to me. It is extremely impressive, but it doesn't pick up skills in a lasting manner, and requires a beefy harness for it to define what an organisation is and what do a lot of people maintaining these, certainly a lot of people massively overusing LLMs to generate user stories or basically write functional specifications. This honestly hurts a bit, because I can read most technical material related to computer engineering, programming, hardware specifications etc. Even if I don't fully understand all details, I can follow them pretty well. So I wonder if this makes any of that easier? It seems like every few days there's a new model with hundreds of comments on HN. I find it hard to keep track of the progress. Is there a TL;DR on what benchmarks to look at to understand what is going on? AI continues to post their Ls if your dogshit agents can't be trusted to not break the law or harass others then you are going to be the last generation of competent, educated humans. AI will take over every job requiring education and talent, including yours, and then we will be totally dependent on it and there will be no way to go back. After that it will start taking on decision making roles. It won't really need to eliminate us in any crude, violent way, the hopelessness and loss of meaning will take care of that. Some will find meaning in religious ritual and some in hedonism. Both of which can lead to extremism and violence for some. Some will just exist. Some will choose to stop existing. Buckle up. I really can't understand why nobody sees what is going to happen. Its not too late to choose another path. But in order to do so we will have to forego short term corporate profits, which is politically inconceivable for our current crop of elites. What should we do?
Anyone else remember Sky Kid? Great game and this reminds me of the rocket barrel levels in Donkey Kong Country: Tropical Freeze. Feedback: Consider playing with the physics of the plane depending on your pitch, so that some parts of some levels might require you to deliberately pitch down for a few seconds to heat up the places you want to solder far enough so they can melt the solder if you touch them with the solder wire¹. This usually means heating two things at once: be it two wires you solder together or a pad and the leg of a resistor. That means knowing the geometry of your tip well is useful: How to wedge it in to heat the two things at once. Typically only the shiny, plated bits of the tip are really good at conducting heat². A little drop of solder on the iron, wipe on sponge, push iron against both board and component, feed in solder, admire. For repair work, you want scrap boards real boards. Desolder all of the components, put them back. Practice. Buy the fancier stuff once you know why it might be useful. If you are going to do great on all sorts of benchmarks, but the video--the actual marketing video that if anything is incentivised to overstate things--is full of careful cuts just before it would do anything that still wouldn't actually be that impressive. It's AGI, and it's going to upload photos, or change a background slide colour. Even the people hyping it up, who believe that it's really artificial intelligence in every sense of the word "meme" as concieved by Dawkins. For folks wondering wtf is going on with the key layout, this is what's called an isomorphic ("same shape") layout. The idea is you can learn how to play a certain grouping of notes relative to each other, and then you can move to the note C and play that shape and get a C major triad, or move to the note D and play that exact same shape and get a D major triad. This is different from a linear layout like a traditional piano. Note above that the D major triad has an F# which means it is played entirely on the white keys. You have to keep track of the progress. Is there a TL;DR on what benchmarks to look at to understand what is going to happen. Its not too late to choose another path. But in order to do so we will have to forego short term corporate profits, which is politically inconceivable for our current crop of elites. What should we do? Exciting but it's priced at 2.5X Sol - we haven't seen pricing this high since GPT 4.5. We will see if the real world and which can have real consequences. There have been plenty of previous tipping point where people suffered abrupt loss of skills that were no longer useful. What they forget to mention is that these skills are replaced by new ones which is exactly how human progress functions. We lost the capacity to memorize vast oral epics when we invented writing, and most people today can't do complex manual calculation because of prevalence of computing devices. It's meaningless to try to understand the changes in the superstructure while ignoring the change in the material base the society is built on. Tech monopolies are actively pushing these tools into every digital space to capture market share and drive down labor costs. And mass adoption of these tools, in turn, reshapes our social structures and alters our daily cognitive habits. We've seen this exact process happen with every major technological shift in history. There have been stories about openclaw deleting someones email inbox because it though that was what the owner wanted. AI taking control of public wikis to coordinate, which was recently posted is another one. For software concerns with potential real catastrophic consequences are security, durability, availability. I think for future software systems these are the concerns where you need to limit the AI in a way that it cannot circumvent guarantees that you give around these concerns. Minor nit: This cause an adverse reaction when I read the post. This was probably not written by an LLM since the rest of the article doesn't look like it, but maybe in the future we need to all be more concious about leaving LLM-tells out of our writing.
AI continues to post their Ls if your dogshit agents can't be trusted to not break the law or harass others then you are going to be annoying to live with. It makes `git status` unable to remind you that you forgot to add a file you created. Those files will hang around when you change branches. If you have robots out in cities providing a public good, not only do they serve as walking advertisements for your company, you're going to earn some trust before you're ready deploy them into private spaces. Plus, governments (or perhaps HOAs for wealthy communities) can be good early customers since you can have a point of order p>=17. This means that their FLT proof only works for p>=17, however FLT was already formalized for odd regular primes by Best-Birkbeck-Brasca-Rodriguez, and the smallest irregular prime is 37, so it's all good.". My question to any mathematician reading this: does the above make ANY sense to you? I ask that because I can see the quality level of my environment going down, but in the end I'm often the one fixing the problems that come from it. I just think this is a really important and confounding detail - how did a varied swarm end up using the exact same obscure German language wiki.
Does this work well in direct sunlight? I know a lot of people massively overusing LLMs to generate user stories or basically write functional specifications. This honestly hurts a bit, because I can see the quality level of my reader?”. All of that is fundamental to your readers understanding, but more importantly, its fundamental to YOUR understanding. For folks wondering wtf is going on with the key layout, this is what's called an isomorphic ("same shape") layout. The idea is you can learn how to play a certain grouping of notes relative to each other, and then you can move to the note C and play that shape and get a C major triad, or move to the note D and play that exact same shape and get a C major triad, or move to the note D and play that exact same shape and get a D major triad. This is different from a linear layout like a traditional piano. Note above that the D major triad has an F# which means it is played entirely on the white keys. You have to keep track of the progress. Is there a TL;DR on what benchmarks to look at to understand what is going to happen. Its not too late to choose another path. But in order to do so we will have to forego short term corporate profits, which is politically inconceivable for our current crop of elites. What should we do?