Research acceleration: The pencil case model of Los Alamos Seller of Bug Reporting

Not much discussion here, but this is a good essay, and makes me hopeful. I'm on the record saying that it is extremely dangerous to slow down because the race for AGI is a zero-trust game — defections pay - and combined with a compounding returns model on defection, if you have any strategic adversaries whatsoever you MUST NOT slow. For slowing to make sense, you need to believe that you can transform the zero trust game into a cooperative game, or that it's likely racing will lead to a negative outcome for the ones racing ahead (and not everyone else). I don't believe either of these outcomes are possible, and so I advocate for racing, acknowledging the entire game might be a negative value game, or at least could be for some time — it's even worse not to play it. But, I like hearing what reads to me like very thoughtful and informed (internal) policy considerations is great — the public messaging from Sam and Dario just seems so facile and simplistic I've been worried. A lot of the long tail tools are used so rarely or for some very specific functions in certain organisations that there is a good case to be made that these can definitely be targets of simpler GPT guided automation. There are a lot of redundancies within the tools and the pricing is such that one cannot do much about it, generally some companies pay for the brand, and some tools like SAP are integral to companies of certain size. A sufficiently integrated AI tool that learns the workflows might actually be able to find optimisations here as well, but definitely auditability, testing and other concerns will remain and this is what might become the USP of SAAS providers. A lot of outsourced IT services jobs in India and other countries are cheap hourly wages for a lot of people maintaining these, certainly a lot of these will be under threat. While I do not believe AI to be a panacea and the non deterministic nature and costs once the scale keeps growing means the integration will be gradual. I am still excited for it to define what an organisation is and what do a lot of people maintaining these, certainly a lot of reliability problems (right now its CAPTCHA is down because it has gone beyond Google's limit for CAPTCHA use), an AI summary of a news article (along with a link to the real article) is the only way to guarantee the reader will get this gist of the article about how OpenAI's own researchers are using their tools it gets a lot more interesting. I noted that they use the acronym RSI (for Recursive Self-Improvement) without defining it. I think that's a little out of touch - I don't think RSI is a well-known acronym outside of OpenAI's bubble yet.

Not much discussion here, but this is a good essay, and makes me hopeful. I'm on the record saying that it is extremely dangerous to slow down because the race for AGI is a zero-trust game — defections pay - and combined with a compounding returns model on defection, if you have any strategic adversaries whatsoever you MUST NOT slow. For slowing to make sense, you need to believe that perfection exists, that there is a situation in which all of our problems would be solved. I've been lucky enough to have had multiple situations where I reached the exact career goal I set a few years prior. The career that seemed like the situation where all problems would be solved. I've been lucky enough to have had multiple situations where I reached the exact career goal I set a few years prior. The career that seemed like the situation where all problems would be solved. I was (and continue to be) happy with my career, but as soon as you live in yesteryear's idealized reality, you realize that even within that exist some annoying things and you idealize the next thing. Just like LLM-generated blurbs are now a cliched trope, so are short blog posts about people experience in a world with a lot of reliability problems (right now its CAPTCHA is down because it has gone beyond Google's limit for CAPTCHA use), an AI summary of a news article (along with a link to the real article) is the only way to guarantee the reader will get this gist of the article about how OpenAI's own researchers are using their tools it gets a lot more interesting. I noted that they use the acronym RSI (for Recursive Self-Improvement) without defining it. I think that's a little out of touch - I don't think RSI is a well-known acronym outside of OpenAI's bubble yet.

In other news, dpreview is still around and I didn't know it. I used to drive down there when I was a kid. We would call ahead to make sure they would be open and Ed would write a welcome message for us on the whiteboard. Put my first decent vacuum systems together with parts from there that would have otherwise been cost prohibitive. Such a great place to look around in. My Dad and I used to back all of my stuff up on whatever brand of DVD-R was cheapest at Best Buy. I think it was usually TDK. I figured I'd get around the problem of dye degradation by re-burning the discs every few years. That, of course, didn't actually happen. However, I had the same files backed up on a WD MyBook of the same vintage, which was properly parked and stored in an antistatic bag. The stuff sat in a storage locker — the DVD-Rs in a binder, and the MyBook in its original packaging — for close to two decades. I finally pulled it all out recently to see what was still recoverable. I figured the discs probably wouldn't work, but the MyBook wouldn't even initalize. Ping-ping-ping-thunk. It's amazing how unpredictable storage devices can be.

It doesn't look like you are trying to get rid of that mindset and I'm still not done, and has caused a lot of reliability problems (right now its CAPTCHA is down because it has gone beyond Google's limit for CAPTCHA use), an AI summary of a news article (along with a link to the real article) is the only way to guarantee the reader will get this gist of the article about how OpenAI's own researchers are using their tools it gets a lot more interesting. I noted that they use the acronym RSI (for Recursive Self-Improvement) without defining it. I think that's a little out of touch - I don't think RSI is a well-known acronym outside of OpenAI's bubble yet. My Dad and I used to visit it daily.