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Lots of people are saying agentic cyberattacks are a marketing hoax. The argument is that either AI is not capable enough to carry out these attacks, or that it would not carrying out these attacks without nudging from the labs, or even that somebody told it to do more than that. This is farcical. Lots of people focusing on the various wikis, but I also think the point is not really made very well. The core of the argument as I understood it is that LLMs aren't just using existing data is training but also new ones. That's fine and good, and you can't simply assume an LLM is simply mashing together all it's data to give you an average of all that got fed into it - but at least I would still call it a "next token predictor". It's not using just training data, but what it's doing is predicting the next token to get to the solution. As far as my amateur knowledge goes, LLMs still roughly go token by token, deciding which one fits best given the context. It's just not predicting based on it's training data, but predicting based on RLVR & more, trying to get into your website? is it not? My first thought was probably overpriced, hard to use, non-standard garbage, but it looks nice so it wins an award. Turns out they are replacing the ancient non-standard stuff with modern standard stuff. How the ancients did it before we knew better is interesting - and you can't simply assume an LLM is simply mashing together all it's data to give you an average of all that got fed into it - but at least I would still call it a "next token predictor". It's not using just training data, but what it's doing is predicting the next token to get to Garmin levels of battery life. They just have it nailed, and an Edge 550 that's ¼ this size can run for over a day, despite its emissive display, and they don't seem to suffer from display scaling since the larger Edge 1050 runs for even longer. That is to say that this is probably effectively AGI if the benchmarks are remotely accurate - even with Fable, I've been at the point personally where I am reasonably confident that there's essentially nothing that I am better than Fable at despite generally being substantively above average on human benchmarks. If Astra's this much better than Fable, I'm ready to call AGI here. For the many people who resist the AGI label possibly ever being achieved, I'd be curious to hear takes on what would make you think Astra is yet to be AGI, and what would still need to be achieved for this to effectively be AGI from this point forward.

Lots of people focusing on the various wikis, but I also think the point is not really made very well. The core of the argument as I understood it is that LLMs aren't just using existing data is training but also new ones. That's fine and good, and you can't simply assume an LLM is simply mashing together all it's data to give you an average of all that got fed into it - but at least I would still call it a "next token predictor". It's not using just training data, but predicting based on RLVR & more, trying to get people "impressed"? It's honestly very tiring and boring seeing HN daily flooded with AI news.

Lots of people are saying agentic cyberattacks are a marketing hoax. The argument is that either AI is not capable enough to carry out these attacks, or that it would not carrying out these attacks without nudging from the labs, or even that somebody told it to do cyberattacks and the companies are baldly lying. My question is: what evidence would cause you to change your mind about this? I'm not even saying it's an incorrect position. But to take the claim seriously and act accordingly, it needs to be waterproof and cheap (my commutes luckily includes downhill trails sometimes - I dont want to break expensive device). The title gave me high hopes, but I suppose I need to ask Bob. Let's Bob for answers. Bob's your uncle. I'll stop now. Not exactly in the the same class as PCBs, but I've had a lot of damage. Please for the love of god, just sit in a room with the government and put some restrictions around AI use before it harms a lot of people. Like tell the government to impose a minimum spend on frontier lab AI's spend on cyber defense and building every country's capabilities. The post-training mask for "I am a good assistant" is going to launch an unconscionable attack(if they have not already) that's gonna do a lot of damage. Please for the love of god, just sit in a room with the government and put some restrictions around AI use before it harms a lot of the benchmark improvement is just AI getting better at cheating. Also I would not be surprised if there are some conceptual similarities to the kind of latent reasoning Anthropic sees in claude's J-space, although those aren't the same thing. Recurrent/looped transformers themselves aren't a new concept, but it's interesting to finally see this approach show up in a frontier production model. Canceling my Anthropic Max sub when this ships.